Simples Nacional, Lucro Presumido or Lucro Real: how to compare in 2026

The best tax regime is not the one with the lowest rate in the first line of a table. It is what produces the lowest total allowable and manageable cost for the actual operation, considering taxes, credits, retentions, payroll, margin and obligations.

In 2026, this analysis needs to incorporate the new option flow for Simples at opening and changes in the calculation of Lucro Presumido for certain revenues.

Start with eligibility

Before simulating, rule out disallowed regimes. Check:

• activity and legal structure;
• gross revenue and legal limits;
• corporate composition;
• debts or impediments;
• sector-specific rules;
• start-up effects.

Eligibility does not mean advantage. A company may be able to opt for Simples and still need to compare another regime.

How each regime works

Each model determines a calculation logic; therefore, numbers from different regimes should not be compared without equalizing the bases.

Simples Nacional

It combines several taxes into one payment document, but it is not a single rate. The amount depends on activity, accumulated revenue, the applicable annex and bracket, and the amount deducted under the statutory formula. For certain services, the R-factor can shift taxation between Annexes III and V.

Upon opening, the intention to opt was informed in the Tax Administration Module during the registration flow. For new companies, don’t use the old generic rule of asking for the option after 30 or 60 days.

Lucro Presumido

IRPJ and CSLL are calculated based on presumption percentages defined by activity, without directly depending on the effective accounting profit. PIS, Cofins, ISS or ICMS and other effects must be entered into the account separately.

Complementary Law No. 224/2025 increased certain presumption percentages by 10% on the portion of annual gross revenue that exceeds R$5 million. The Revenue reports application to IRPJ since the first quarter of 2026 and to CSLL since the second quarter. Old simulations may be underestimated.

Lucro Real

Lucro Real starts from accounting profit adjusted under tax rules. It may be mandatory for certain taxpayers and worth comparing when margins are low, results vary materially or significant tax credits are available. It requires bookkeeping and controls that support the calculation.

The minimum simulation data

• monthly revenue by activity and municipality/state;
• growth and seasonality;
• payroll, pró-labore and charges;
• documented costs and expenses;
• accounting margin;
• purchases and inputs with possible credit;
• withholding taxes;
• customer profile and price formation;
• revenue subject to specific treatment;
• compliance cost.

A spreadsheet without this data only offers an approximation.

Compare the total cost

For each scenario, show:

1. taxes on an accrual basis;
2. cash due at each payment date;
3. usable credits;
4. retentions and advances;
5. obligations and systems;
6. sensitivity to increases in revenue, payroll or margin;
7. events requiring review.

Do not mix company taxes, payroll charges and partner taxes without identifying each layer.

When to review

Review before opening, in annual planning and whenever there is new activity, relevant change in revenue, team, margin, address, customers or purchasing chain.

If the comparison is already restricted to two regimes, use the guide Simples Nacional or Lucro Presumido. To fit the decision into the record, go back to how to open a company and obtain the CNPJ. VMAHUB can build scenarios with documented assumptions and show the point of change between them.